Rally Islas Canarias [ERC, ERCJ, ESP]

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Pěkný pohled do zákulisí jak probíhal výběr pneumatik u Mikkelsena.

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Mikkelsen a RZ 11

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Jak už jsem zmínil v komentáři, za pozornost určitě stojí fakt, že první dva, tedy Fourmaux a Bonato jeli nově homologované pneumatiky Michelin, které budou volně v prodeji až pro nadcházející sezónu.

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Když už se Tomáš rozepsal v sekci MS o šancích jednotlivých uchazečů, přidám sem pro zajímavost i mou kalkulaci před Kanárama, kterou jsme použili jako podklady pro tvorbu spotů i štítků na poháry. Je to sice anglicky, ale i tak je to myslím celkem zajímavé.

General classification:

a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged
Lukyanuk - in case of Solberg win with full 40 points, he needs to score at least 21 points to be champion
Lukyanuk - if Solberg score at least 28 points, he needs to score at least 9 points (and it continues 29-10, 30-11, 31-12, 32-13, 33-14, 34-15, 35-16, 36-17, 37-18, 38-19, 39-20, 40-21)

Solberg - to be a champion, he needs to score at least 28 points and at least 20 points more than Lukyanuk (Lukyanuk will be deleting 8 points from Hungary), so Solberg will be champion if points will be 28-0, 28-1, 28-2, 28-3, 28-4, 28-5, 28-6, 28-7, 28-8, 29-9, 30-10, 31-11, 32-12, 33-13, 34-14, 35-15, 36-16, 37-17, 38-18, 39-19, 40-20)

Without Spa, Munster cannot be a champion.


b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
Without Spa, situation is completely same as above (Munster has 3 points more, but it will not help him to beat Lukyanuk)


c) as Eremeev will not start in Canarias and will be replaced by Arnautov, we can see the unique situation when champions will be Lukyanuk and Johnston...


ERC2:

Erdi - will be champion if he will score at least 14 points
Melegari - to be a champion, he needs to score 27 more points than Erdi and not loose more than 5 points to Mabellini
Mabellini - to be a champion, he needs to score at least 32 points, at least 32 more points than Erdi and at least 6 more points than Melegari

- codrivers championship is more open, it will be fight between Csoko (Erdi) and Kokins (Feofanov). Csoko needs to score 5 more points than Kokins ; Kokins needs to score 6 points more than Csoko


ERC3:

Without Spa it is clear, Torn is champion, cannot be beaten


ERC1J:
a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged

Munster: to be a champion, if Solberg scores at least 18 points, he needs to score at least 25, so combinations Munster-Solberg: 25-18, 26-19, 27-20, 28-21, 29-22, 30-23, 31-24, 32-25, 33-26, 34-27, 35-28, 36-29, 37-30, 38-31, 39-32, 40-33)
Solberg: to be a champion, he needs to score at least 18 points and then at worse 6 points less than Munster, so combinations Solberg-Munster: 18-24, 19-25, 20-26, 21-27, 22-28, 23-29, 24-30, 25-31, 26-32, 27-33, 28-34, 29-35, 30-36, 31-37, 32-38, 33-39, 34-40

Without Spa, Llarena cannot be champion


b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
Munster: to be a champion, if Solberg scores at least 23 points, he needs to score at least 25, so combinations Munster-Solberg: 25-23, 26-24, 27-25, 28-26, 29-27, 30-28, 31-29, 32-30, 33-31, 34-32, 35-33, 36-34, 37-35, 38-36, 39-37, 40-38)
Solberg: to be a champion, he needs to score at least 23 points and then at worse 1 point less than Munster, so combinations Solberg-Munster: 23-24, 24-25, 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32, 32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40)

Without Spa, Llarena cannot be champion


ERC3J:

Without Spa it is clear, Torn is champion, cannot be beaten

ERC Teams:

It is only about Rallye Team Spain and Sainteloc Junior Team. Both teams are nominating three cars - Llarena, Solans and Bassas vs Lukyanuk, Griebel and Furuseth.

So they are fighting for 80 points max.


a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged
Rallye Team Spain: to be a champion, if Sainteloc scores at least 39 points, they needs to score at least 3 points more than Sainteloc, so winning situations: 42-39, 43-40, 44-41 etc.
Sainteloc: to be a champion, they need to score at least 39 points and not less than 1 points than RT, so winning situations: 39-40, 40-41, 41-42 etc.

b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
Rallye Team Spain: to be a champion, if Sainteloc scores at least 41 points, they needs to score at least 1 points more than Sainteloc, so winning situations: 42-41, 43-42, 44-43 etc.
Sainteloc: to be a champion, they need to score at least 41 points and at least 1 point more than RT, so winning situations: 41-40, 42-41, 43-42 etc.



Abarth:

Situation is clear, Mabellini is champion

I hope I am correct with the calculations.

In attachment I am sending also XLS file with current standings, you can write there easily all possible calculation as you want (dont forget to delete worst result if needed).

In a summary

General
possible champions drivers: Alexey Lukyanuk, Oliver Solberg
possible champions codrivers: Dmitriy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston
possible drivers on second place: Alexey Lukyanuk, Oliver Solberg, Grégoire Munster, Efrén Llarena
possible codrivers on second place: Dmiytiy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston, Louis Louka, Sara Fernandez
possible drivers on third place: Oliver Solberg, Grégoire Munster, Efrén Llarena
possible codrivers on third place: Dmiytiy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston, Louis Louka, Sara Fernandez

ERC2
possible champions drivers: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini
possible champions codrivers: Zoltán Csökö, Normunds Kokins
possible drivers on second place: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini, Dmitry Feofanov
possible codrivers on second place: Zoltán Csökö, Corrado Bonato, Normunds Kokins
possible drivers on third place: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini, Dmitry Feofanov
possible codrivers on third place: Zoltán Csökö, Corrado Bonato, Normunds Kokins

ERC3
possible champions drivers: Ken Torn
possible champions codrivers: Kauri Pannas
possible drivers on second place: Josep Bassas
possible codrivers on second place: Axel Coronado
possible drivers on third place: Amaury Molle, Adrienn Vogel, Pedro Almeida, Ola Nore jr.
possible codrivers on third place: Florian Barral, Ivett Notheisz, Hugo Magalhaes, Veronica Engan

ERC1J
possible champions drivers: Grégoire Munster, Oliver Solberg
possible drivers on second place: Grégoire Munster, Oliver Solberg
possible drivers on third place: Efrén Llarena, Miko Marczyk, Erik Cais, Callum Devine

ERC3J
possible champions drivers: Ken Torn
possible drivers on second place: Josep Bassas
possible drivers on third place: Dennis Rådström, Amaury Molle, Pedro Almeida, Ola Nore jr.

ERC Team
possible champion: Rallye Team Spain, Sainteloc Junior Team
possible second place: Rallye Team Spain, Sainteloc Junior Team, Estonian Autosport Junior Team
possible third place: Sainteloc Junior Team, Estonian Autosport Junior Team, Team MRF Tyres

Abarth
possible champion: Andrea Mabellini
possible drivers on second place: Martin Rada
possible drivers on third place: Roberto Gobbin

[Tomáš]

Vidím, že tě matematika (a speciálně její část kombinatorika) baví přinejmenším stejně jako mne.
Takže nyní zbývá už jen RGT Cup: if Nešetřil will be first and Mabellini second, next both will be winners of ...

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A nebo to zruší pro malý počet účastníků...